Icebergs in front of the Belcher Glacier, September 2006

Goal

We're using intensive field and remote sensing studies to develop and test a high-resolution coupled mass balance-hydrology-ice dynamics model, and use it to study the Belcher Glacier, a large, fast-flowing, tidewater terminating ice cap outlet. We will determine the glacier's current health and explore its response to future climate change scenarios. This study will provide a new state-of-the-art model for integrated glacier studies, and will give new information on ice dynamics and glacier evolution in cold Arctic glacier systems.

Significance

Outlet glacier flow from large ice caps such as Greenland has been accelerating, causing enhanced iceberg calving and subsequent increases in glacier mass loss. This is important for both freshwater inputs to the global ocean, and sea level change. Two main hypotheses about the drivers of accelerated ice flow are: glacier hydrology and terminus destabilisation. While surface meltwater can reach the glacier bed, lubricating the ice-bed interface and causing faster ice flow, the exact nature of the relationship between ice dynamics and hydrology is still unclear. Destabilisation, on the other hand, could be driven by several factors: (1) rising sea level; (2) enhanced marine melting caused by a warming ocean; (3) terminus thinning via enhanced surface melt; or, (4) terminus thinning due to longer periods of fast flow in summer. Our understanding of iceberg calving processes is also limited, making it difficult to develop a true coupled mass balance-hydrology-ice dynamics model to describe tidewater glacier behaviour.

Research objectives

  1. Develop a high order coupled model of glacier mass balance and hydrology, ice dynamics and iceberg calving.
  2. Collect detailed field and remote sensing data for model design and calibration.
    • Ice thickness and geometry
    • Surface meltwater production and runoff
    • Locations for meltwater to enter the glacier
    • Ice velocity and strain rates
    • Subglacial conditions
    • Mass loss from iceberg calving
  3. Run model to determine Belcher Glacier sensitivity to changes in both the atmospheric and oceanic climate, and in the amount and distribution of surface water inputs to glacier bed.